Big Data is the New Crystal Ball

June 2015, Vienna, Austria - On the occasion of the Eurovision Song Contest (ESC) 2015 media agency Mindshare, part of WPP, tested whether it is possible to predict voting results via Social Media Buzz on Twitter.

While the ESC was decided by a classic jury and audience voting, Mindshare’s The Loop had correctly predicted Sweden as the winner in advance with 365 points.  Precisely at 23:40 clock, so just before the official country-voting started at 24:00 in the ORF, the more than 6 million mentions on Twitter in a generated in-house voting simulation Sweden was shown as the winner. Additionally, The Loop correctly predicted the final results for three other countries in the top 5 and the awarding of Austria’s 12 points to Australia.

"In the time of big data, the consumer has already projected his/her opinions and actions  before filling out the ballot," says Friederike Mueller-Wernhart, CEO of Mindshare. In "The Loop" a team of specialists interpreted the social media mentions and comments and simulated the voting behavior of the population via special formulas of data sources such as Brandwatch and Adspired. Since 2014, the innovative "The Loop" has been used for the real-time advertising optimization and thus increasing the success of advertising campaigns for Clients.

From the perspective of Mindshare’s social media experts, big events such as elections, polls and surveys are especially suitable for forecasting via the social networks. Twitter presents itself as particularly suitable for the monitoring of large developments and voting on the Net. As a matter of fact Twitter had it’s highest Austrian traffic ever also with the highest percentage of mobile usage during the ESC program.

Mindshare is the first media agency in Austria to adapt advertising in real-time and thus significantly increase the returns of brand advertising. Modern communication is represented by the combination of traditional and new media. The brand media agency is part of WPP and the GroupM worldwide network, which have a market share of 39% in Austria.

Song Contest Winner was Predicted through Social Buzz

While others have spent the Song Contest evening in front of a TV with a smartphone in hand, the media agency Mindshare was hard at work on their computers: they calculated, ahead of time, this year’s Song Contest winner based on the interest that the event was creating in social media like Twitter and Facebook. Read the full article here...